Resurgent Insurgents

The offensive in Falluja is a success. US forces have killed over 1000 insurgents. There is a small problem, winning the battle may have cost the war. Experts project there are roughly 10,000 armed insurgents in Iraq, or possibly twice as many when factoring in their supporters. And that is the fundamental problem; we are no longer fighting a defined enemy. And, if we must reduce Iraqi cities to rubble to win, we will lose. For each death we cause we will spawn at least two to take their place.

In a recent New York Times op-ed, Dartmouth history professors Daryl G. Press and Benjamin Valentino point out how great a task awaits America as it strives to replace the government it toppled. They reference the numerous failed attempts by other military overlords – France and the US in Vietnam, the Soviets in Afghanistan, the French in Algeria, and the British in Malaysia. Furthermore, they note that only extremely oppressive regimes, such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq suppressed insurgents successfully.

They failed to provide a blueprint for successful military conquest. Nevertheless, we are there now and must find an endgame. How does a nation end the uprisings? How do we provide viable alternative to those willing to risk their lives in order remove American forces?

America must act quickly, making good on the promise of a better and freer Iraq. We must make good on our promise of elections. We have to make good on the rebuilding of the nation. We must provide alternatives for the disenfranchised to express themselves. People who have a voice in their government and choice in their life do not choose to kill themselves and others. The people in Iraq must believe the life under American military oversight is better than death.

The Iraqi people are not yearning for a return to the iron fist of Saddam. But incorporated within their national psyche is hate and distrust of the US. We must establish a basis for the people of Iraq to trust the American led occupation and no longer fear us. We need to act quickly and not squander the opportunity afforded us. Military victories may be necessary, but they are unlikely to win the hearts of the people. Changing attitudes and beliefs are the key to permanent victory.